Laguna Beach

Christmas is past and we are wrapping up 2007. I thought this holiday season might be slow with some time to catch up on some of those things you always put off, but that was not the case. Of course some of my “busy” has been related to starting MagnumOne Realty but I do have a new listing that I am excited about. It is in the Barrett Ranch area of Antelope which is so new that the streets of this subdivision are not shown on the major map sites or my car GPS system.
What is so interesting about the Laguna Beach Way home is that is loaded with upgrades and virtually new. A wonderful couple bought it from the builder and added almost every upgrade thinking this would be their dream family home for years to come. Plans changed for various reasons and they moved out leaving this wonderful home and all the extras for someone else. Take a look at it, we have some good photos, and let me know what you think.

Friday before Christmas!

Today is the last school day before Christmas vacation for Mikie and most kids; do you remember how great that felt?

Here in the Sacramento real estate market we are not following the law of supply and demand which says as supply declines demand increases. In real estate this would normally mean as the inventory of homes for sale declines the asking prices of those on the market would increase. For the past seven weeks according to HousingTracker inventory of homes for sale has been declining but there has been no sign of asking prices increasing or even firming. In the last month alone, inventory has dropped over 6 percent. During that time asking prices have fallen 4.2 percent which is even faster than the three month figure of 9.6 percent.

Looking back a year, although we are seeing declines in the current inventory of available homes, we still have over 19 percent more homes on the market now. The median asking price which currently stands at $334,500 is down 18.2 percent from a year ago.

By the way, the tax break for mortgage loan debt forgiveness I mentioned several months ago has now become a law. This is a pretty nice Christmas present for those folks who were able to complete short sales this past year.

Last but not least, only 4 shopping days until Christmas. There is always more to do so the only time I know I am done getting ready for Christmas is when time runs out!

Sellers: New Formula for Pricing

In difficult times successful people become creative rather than relying on what has worked in the past. In the slower Sacramento area real estate market determining how to price your house if you are a seller is a key ingredient in obtaining the most money in the shortest period of time. Check out my latest column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “Price Your House to Sell,” and see how the use of comparables has changed. I have also published the article on the Real Estate News page.

Farewell Alliance Title

I want to acknowledge the fine people at Alliance Title who lost their jobs last week when management decided to close the operation. We were customers of Alliance and enjoyed working with the staff and especially Christine Moore who always had a smile on her face and went the extra step to make sure our clients and needs were met. We will miss working with Christine and the team! I know it has been a difficult year in the real estate industry, especially here in the Sacramento area but, when a company the size of Alliance Title, with the customer base they had developed, just “closes the door” rather than sell the business you have to wonder if there is something more to the story.

By the way, the market reception to our new company, MagnumOne Realty has been so very positive and I want to thank all you who have taken the time to send me emails and notes about starting a new company. I am delighted to say we are busy and are looking to add one or two experienced agents to the team. If you are an agent and considering a move to a smaller firm with a strong commitment to agents and customer support, please let me let me know.

Lots happening for a slow time of year!

Normally this is a very slow time of year for the Sacramento and other real estate markets. Not many people want to sell or buy homes during the holidays and Realtors get some needed rest and a chance to catch-up with the rest of the world. Not so, at least so far this year.

Check out my column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “Costs up + Attractive Rates = Increased Mortgage Applications” and see what is happening and some of my own observations. I have also published the article on my News Page at jalone.com.

31 Gone and More to go!

Since November 28^th when I recommended looking at the Catalog Choices where you can have your name removed from almost any catalog mail list I have been collecting the catalogs we receive and have now eliminated us from 31 mail lists. I hated to say good bye to Godiva Chocolates but I really don’t need the calories and paper. In addition I have suggested about another 10 catalogs I would like to see added to their list. It is a really easy site to use and although it won’t reduce much this holiday season, I am sure our mail box will have more room when the spring catalogs are sent out. I am on a mission, join me!

30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 2-Year Low

Concerns over a severe housing downturn and prolonged credit crisis could shake consumer confidence and hurt the economy contributed to a drop in mortgage rates this week, according to Freddie Mac. Interest on 30-year fixed loans sank to 5.96 percent from 6.10 percent last week, landing at the lowest point seen since September 2005.

Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed products fell to 5.65 percent from 5.73 percent over the week and five-year adjustable-rate mortgages were down to 5.75 percent from 5.86 percent, but one-year ARMs bucked the southward trend by bumping up to 5.46 percent from 5.43 percent.

"With lower consumer spending and personal income gains in October, interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities fell lower this week and mortgage rates followed," said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft.

The Sacramento Market is Down but not Out!

There are a number of local sites that do a good job of reporting the monthly real estate statistics for the Sacramento real estate market. This month I am looking at Sacramento Real Estate Statistics where the author just posted some November numbers for our area. The comparisons below are pretty ugly but I caution readers to remember that we have a strong and diverse local economy and our real estate market will improve.
Average $/SF Median $/SF
2006 - $234 2006 - $226
2007 - $198 2007 - $187

Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
2006 - $419,543 2006 - $375,000
2007 - $360,271 2007 - $320,000

In addition the site includes a chart showing the number of closing in the four county Sacramento area. In September there were 1,287 closings compared to 1,386 in October and 1,158 in November. Looking at November for the past two years reveals in 2005 there were 2,172 and in 2006 there were 1,710 closings. The 1,158 for this November clearly demonstrates the doldrums the market is currently in.

Where is the honor?

Check out my latest column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “No honor for agents.” There was a recent Harris poll conducted about the prestige of various occupations and believe it or not, real estate agents and brokers fared worse than lawyers, business executives and union leaders. What is up with our clients? I have also published the column on my Real Estate News page at jalone.com

Fight back and save a tree

Our mail box is stuffed, again! Especially this time of year when the junk mail is accompanied by every imaginable catalog such as Victoria Secret, Harry and David, Red Envelope, Fairytale Brownies, and the list goes on and on. Some of these are merchants I have used and like but I didn't ask for and don’t need their catalogs. Did you know the paper used to produce catalogs annually is equivalent to 8 million trees?

I came across a site, Catalog Choice, which we have started to use to reduce the number of catalogs we get. You register, find the catalog you want to stop getting and they do the work. Yes, it would be great if they just took your name off of all catalog mailing lists but this is a start and let’s face it we all have a few catalogs we enjoy looking at. It is too late to stop what you will get over this holiday season but think about the spring catalogs you won’t have to throw away!

Holiday Inventory

It has been a few weeks since I have reported on how inventory of homes on the market. The number of homes currently on the market has been declining for the past two months but not at a very fast rate. As of November 19, according to HousingTracker, we had 17,444 homes on the market in the Sacramento area. That is a decline of over 1,000 homes from the high in September and is down 2.3 percent from a month ago but is still 13 percent higher than it was a year ago.

The median asking price for homes on the market right now is $349,000, which is down 2.2 percent from a month ago and 15.9 percent from last year. Until we see a much more significant decline in the inventory I do not expect to see continued pressure on sellers to lower their price to attract buyers.

Over the past few weeks I have been noticing some increased buyer activity in homes price below $350,000.

How good is your coverage?

As many as 40 percent of the 14,000 homeowners who lost their houses in California’s forest fires last month are discovering they don’t have enough insurance to rebuild, according to the California Department of Insurance.Although California state officials have tried to raise home owner awareness of coverage limits, several nationwide studies suggest that homeowners tend to ignore risk and don’t understand that insurance policies don’t guarantee replacement costs.

Don’t let this happen to you, check your insurance policy or call your agent and determine if you have replacement coverage or exactly how much you would get in the case of the unthinkable, a full loss.

Paul Martin's

We have discovered a wonderful new restaurant in Roseville, Paul Martin’s American Bistro. The restaurant has a modern, warm, decor with brick, leather, and lots of wood. According to one of the owners, Brian Bennett, they are concentrating on seasonal and organic ingredients they get from local farmers and producers. What I can tell you is everything we had was wonderful, especially the shrimp scampi and the service was attentive and friendly. This is the kind of place that is going to quickly develop a regular clientele. You can count on seeing me there often!

This week went by much too fast! We were busy at MagnumOne but not to the extent I would like. I had a few showings on our listings but nothing that appears to be headed toward an offer. With most schools out next week and almost everyone I know headed out of town the already slow market should be headed to comatose for the rest of November so maybe I will have time to have a lunch or two at Paul Martin’s.

Here is where they are located:

Paul Martin's American Bistro

1455 Eureka Rd

Roseville, CA 95661

(916) 783-3600

Not Easy for Buyers too!

We have all heard it and most of us have said it, this is a buyer’s market. There are thousands of homes on the market, asking prices continue to decline and the number of active buyers is small. All of this should combine to make buying a breeze for homebuyers. My latest client buyers, Joe and Laura, found just the opposite. Check out my latest article and column at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “No Breeze for Buyers!” for the full story. I have also published the article on my Real Estate News page at jalone.com.

Check out my FREE CD Offer and meet Karmyn Tyler

New - eschool reports from MagnumOne Realty

Magazine Photo Shoot

I have been working with a real estate industry publication, Broker-Agent Magazine to complete a feature story on me and MagnumOne Realty. It has been very flattering to be nominated for this honor and fun working with the writer. This past Friday, I spent a few hours with their photographer, Jill Wagner Photography. We took some photos at my son’s school, Sierra Elementary, with the Principal Bob Capp (see photos below). From there we got some in my home office and then went to one of my listings. It was a fun experience and Jill did a great job of getting some shots that even I liked!

The editors at Broker-Agent are putting the final touches on the story and it should be published in their Sacramento December issue.

Five Solutions for a Troubled Housing Market

From the online NAR magazine: How do you fix a troubled housing market? Forbes.com asked that question of a broad range of housing experts, including CEOs of real estate firms, real estate practitioners, economists from lending institutions, and research directors at analytics firms. Here are five of their best suggestions.

1. Restore investor faith. "Mortgage fraud, by both borrowers and insiders, must be identified and prosecuted in order for faith to be restored in the market," says Anthony Sanders, professor of real estate finance at Arizona State University.

2. Expand Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration loans. "Our local banks and community banks have done a great job providing funding. (FHA) should be there as a supplemental for people who have good credit," says Congressman Lincoln Davis (D-Tenn.)

3. Cut construction and prices. "The market will only hit bottom after builders cut construction and sellers slash prices," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "The longer builders and sellers hold on, the longer the market will struggle."

4. Bring back non-agency loans. "The dramatic seizing of the mortgage-credit markets caused the elimination of almost any loan that wasn't backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac," says Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. The revival of non-agency loans "will add much-needed mortgage funding to potential home buyers and folks looking to refinance."

5. Buyers and sellers get real. Nelson Gonzalez, senior vice president of Esslinger, Wooten Maxwell, REALTORS® , believes that once buyers realize that they're not going to convince a seller to accept a rock-bottom price, fluidity and activity can return to the market. "There is much pent-up demand," he says, "and buyers have been sitting on their hands for some time now."

Are you ready to bid?

There is another foreclosure auction coming to town and this weekend is the “Open House” for over 200 properties that will, check that, may be sold at auction on November 18^th. Check out may latest column at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “Foreclosure Auction” for the details and my warning to be careful.

It amazes me, with all the bargains in today’s market and homes that go for weeks without a showing, this weekend some of these auction properties may get as many as 50 potential buyers through them. The allure of huge discounts appears too much for some of us. The unfortunate truth is that most of these homes will be sold at current market price or above!

If you are interested in the foreclosure auction and would like me to help select, value, bid and close the transaction call me at 916 276-6883 or send me an email. I like a good auction!

Short Sale Patience

Right now I have two short sale escrows and as of “this moment” both look like they will close successfully. If you have not been involved with a short sale, let me tell you, they are a great deal of work and more often than not it is frustrating dealing with lenders who act like they have nothing to lose by taking all the time in the world to make decisions. Even with all the work we put in getting these two sales to this point, my hat is off to the buyers. In a world of instant gratification where you can more often than not get anything you want today or worst cast, overnight mail, they waited and waited without any assurance the transaction would go through. Patience is a rare commodity these days and I want to acknowledge that without the buyer’s patience we would not be getting ready to close.

You can see these properties at Miravista Drive and Oregon Way.

Just a feeling and Welcome Kelly Baker!

I can’t point to anything concrete but I am getting the feeling we are starting to get some increased activity in the Sacramento real estate market. I have been contacted by several potential buyers in the past week who all seem serious about wanting to buy now. I have made one offer and hope to be making another later this week. In addition, we have had a few more showings of some of our listing this past week. This is not a big turnaround but maybe a spike of activity before we move into the holidays.

Congratulations to Kelly Baker, who has obtained her real estate license and this past week has joined the MagnumOne Realty team. Kelly was our administrative assistant last year and we are delighted she has taken the next step in her real estate career and joined MagnumOne. For a new agent and Realtor, Kelly has a tremendous amount of experience in working with clients and making sure all the details of a transaction are completed. I know she will be a great addition to our team. Welcome Kelly!

Two forward, one back

We had a great introduction of our new company, MagnumOne Realty at the Fall Carnival for Mikie’s school. We raffled off a holiday inflatable yard decoration and gave out trick ‘r treat bags to the kids. Had lots of questions about the new company and overall a very positive response. The Carnival was a huge success, even though we had to move it from Friday last week to Monday because of rain. I think everyone had a good time and we raised some money for the school Parent Teachers Club. I think we may have picked up a listing too!

This morning as I was preparing to head out the door to meet with a prospective new agent for our team, I received a very flattering invitation to speak at the next meeting of the Sacramento chapter of American Women in Radio and Television who want to learn more about the “State of Real Estate.” That is pretty exciting, and yes a bit scary, as I don’t have any experience speaking before large groups and like most people hate the idea!

So that appears to be two nice forward steps for my business, when I learned one of our short sale transaction we have worked so hard on the past two months is in serious trouble. For several reasons we had to go back to the lender and ask them to discount their payoff even more than they had previously approved. According to our contact there, it is not looking good but there has been no final decision. Some parts of this business are much harder than they should be!

Going Down….

Since the week of August 27, according to HousingTracker, inventory has dropped from 18,844 to 18,007 for the week ending October 15. Although not falling as much as some of us would like to see it is clear we have reached our peak high for the year and should see declining inventory until we get into the March/April timeframe of 2008. The drop in the past seven weeks is 837 homes or 4.4 percent.

During the same period the median asking price has continued to fall. At August 27 it stood at $375,000 for homes in the Sacramento area. As of October 15 it had fallen, $16,000 to $359,000 at 4.3 percent decline. In the past month, alone, according to HousingTracker, the median price has declined 2.9 percent. This compares to a three month number of 7.7 percent and a six month number of 10.2 percent.

Normally we would expect to see a slowing of the falling prices as inventory declines, however; with the increasing number of foreclosures and short sales combined with the tightening mortgage loan requirements it may be some time before we see prices firm up.

This has been a busy and fun week at our new company, MagnumOne Realty. We are working on our new website, changing out “For Sale” signs, ordering business cards and generally just getting our name out there. On Friday evening we will be sponsoring a raffle at the Fall Carnival for Mikie’s elementary school. If you have some free time and are in the area, stop by, it is really a nice family event.

MagnumOne Realty

I am delighted to announce my association with MagnumOne Realty. Over the past two years I have come to understand and fully appreciate the ability to customize and deliver individual service to my clients. For me and my business, client service is the key ingredient for success. Although some of the resources of large brokerages are impressive, with today’s technology, I believe the level of service I want to be known for can be better delivered in smaller environment.

For the above reasons and with the help of Vivian Lawrence, I have taken the next step in my real estate career. I am very excited about MagnumOne and what we will be able to do for our clients. Keep an eye on my website and over the next few days I will add more details about our new company and services we will be offering.

Amador Wine Country

Yesterday, I hosted Randi & Tony, our MyForSaleSign clients and four of their friends to a wine tour in Amador County. We had a nice stretch limousine so no one had to worry about directions or driving, some great weather and overall a fun day. The wineries in Amador are fun to visit, not as crowded or pretentious as Napa and you still occasionally find an owner or winemaker pouring. The only negative of the day was it passed too quickly and when it was time to leave we had missed two of the wineries we had intended to visit.

If you want to see more photos of or wine trip follow this link to our Amador Wine County photos on Flickr.

When is being affordable bad?

According to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), in their 2008 Housing Market forecast, the areas of the state where homes are more affordable will be the markets who will perform the worst in 2008. This appears to be due to the large number of new homes built in these areas, including Sacramento, in the past few years. Read my weekly column over at Rocklin & Roseville Today, “Will 2008 be better?” for more details.

Slow Going

Although we finally have started to see plateau and even slight decreases in the inventory of homes for sale in the Sacrament area the median asking price is falling faster than the number of homes. The number of homes for sale has decreased by about 100 in the past month and stood at 18,394 according to HousingTracker. This is a decrease of 444 homes from the inventory level at the beginning of the month. During this same time we have seen the median asking price fall from $375,000 to $364,500 or 2.8 percent.

The laws of supply and demand would dictate as we start to see inventory decline we should see a strengthening or increase in price. In this “new market” where we are working our way through the foreclosures and mortgage loan crisis all bets are off. Long term, the affordability and desirability of the Sacramento area will bring the real estate market back into equilibrium but for the rest of this year and the for most of next year the going will be rough on sellers.

Speaking of sellers, I do have some nice listings right now, check out my two listings in Rocklin, Willard Way and Tanus Circle.

Good News for Mortgage Debt Relief

With the growing number of homeowners having difficulty making mortgage payments and faced with homes that are now not worth as much as they owe we are seeing an increase it short sales. This is where a homeowner attempts to sell the home and then convince the lender to take less than they are owed. We just received approval from a lender to move forward on one of my listings. What you may not know about these arrangements is that the homeowner must pay taxes on the amount of debt forgiven just like it was income.

Last week the House Ways and Means committee approved a bill that would relieve taxpayers of the liability due to mortgage relief. Not a law yet, but it appears to be moving through the legislative process and should be finalized soon and be retroactive to January 1, 2007.

A summary of H.R. 3648 is available at the Ways and Means Committee site.

Local, local, local

If the three most important items in real estate are location, location and location then when looking at a real estate market the three most important elements are local, local and local. How does what is happening at a statewide level in California tell you much about Sacramento, your community or neighborhood? August sales of homes are down 28 percent in California, should we be worried in Sacramento, Roseville or Rocklin? Check out my latest article, “Location” which discusses the latest news on the California market including how our Sacramento area compares and maybe even a glimpse of a positive future for local homeowners.

I have also published it over at Rocklin & Roseville Today as my weekly column, Julie Jalone Local Real Estate.

Beautiful Days – Tough Times

Well at least in our home, over the past week or so we have been sharing and battling a nasty end of summer cold. It came on fast and then lingers. I am hopeful by the end of this week we will be back to full strength and have some energy to enjoy these spectacular fall days. After heat of summer these upper 70/lower 80 degree days and cool evenings are a great reminder that we live in a wonderful place.

I wrote about a new listing on Friday and then ended up having some problems with my website so if you followed the link I provided and only were able to see the virtual slide show; here is the link to the listing page for Cargill Way. I tried an experiment, embedding the slide show on the page vs. just giving it a link. It didn’t work and for a while, when we were trying to correct the problem, it looked like the entire site was lost. Got it all back and working now!

We had a couple of showings over the weekend and I am expecting to see an offer on one of my listings later today so maybe these nice days are getting a few more buyers out on the streets.

Adorable

As you can imagine, I have listed a number of homes and visited thousands more, but not often do I see a home that is truly adorable. The house I listed today falls into the adorable category! The sellers are a young couple that took a subdivision model home with lots of upgrades to the next level. It is one of those homes that you feel you could just move right in and enjoy. As slow as this market is right now I think, if we can get some showings, this one will sell quickly. Take a look at Cargill Way – Roseville and let me know what you think.

By the way, the last report from HousingTracker essentially showed inventory and median asking price flat from the previous week. It is good that inventory is not going up but shows the increase in foreclosure activity is keeping it high. Perhaps the drop in interest rate will flush out what some are calling “pent-up demand.”

Dark before the dawn?

During these dark days of real estate in the Sacramento area it is easy to feel like we may never see any positive reports again. This week the SacBee reported that in the Capital region during the month of August, for every two sales a homeowner lost their home to foreclosure. Check out my latest article, “Foreclosures and the future” and find out more about our local market and where it may go in the future. I also posted the article over at Rocklin & Roseville Today in my weekly column.

Could it be?

Inventory in the Sacramento area actually has declined in each of the past two weeks. Could this be the long awaited start in our seasonal decline in homes on the market? Check out my column,” Another False Start?” over at Rocklin & Roseville Today.

Patriot Day

Today is Patriot Day and is designated in memory of the nearly three thousand who died in the September 11, 2001 attacks. The name, Patriot Day, does not seem to have caught on yet, most of us still refer to it as “September 11^th” or “Nine-Eleven.” Today is a time to pause and remember, stand with courage….one nation, one spirit.

Open House Sunday and more

I am doing two open houses today! Both in Rocklin, first at my Willard Way listing from Noon to 2:00 PM and then as soon as I can get to Tanus Circle (2:00 PM) to 5:00 PM. These are both attractive homes in nice neighborhoods and I am hopeful of having some good traffic as they are both ready to sell!

I just picked up a new listing in Yuba City on Oregon Way. It is my second “short sale” listing and I think it is a great house and priced very aggressively.

By the way, I still have a few copies of my September Newsletter, let me know if you would like to have one mailed to you. They are written to be light, fun and not full of real estate stuff. You can get that here on the website.

Finally, we are moving into the last week for buying the Discount “Entertainment Book” to support Sierra Elementary School. You can get one here at a discounted rate and some of the money goes to the Sierra PTC.

Which dog is 77 this month?

We just mailed out the September issue of my Newsletter and it is pretty good with snippets about Patriot Day, a famous dog’s 77^th birthday and “Indian Summer”. We printed a few extra so drop me a note if you would like to receive a FREE copy.

Well, as I have been saying for the past few weeks, the Sacramento real estate market generally slows to a crawl the last two weeks of August and through the Labor Day weekend. I just checked the inventory level over at HousingTracker and for the week ending September 3 there was virtually no change from the previous week. We were down 6 homes to 18, 838. We should get a good idea of what September will bring with the report on September 10. Traditionally, the inventory has peaked for the year and is starting down as we move into the fall months but with the increased foreclosure activity we may see a different pattern this year.

Have a great weekend and if you are out and about on Sunday, stop by my Tanus Circle listing in Rocklin and say hello.

Quiet Labor Day Weekend

The last two weeks of August and through the Labor Day weekend has historically been a slow time in the Sacramento and Roseville real estate market. Most of us are getting a last minute summer holiday and starting to make the transition from summer to fall, even if the weather has been unbearably hot the past week.

I expect we will see some increased activity starting next week although I am beginning to think buying a house is not getting much positive reinforcement from friends and family as it has in the past. I overheard the following comment the other day from a mother talking to her daughter and son-in-law when they were telling her they were actively looking to buy their first home. Mom said. “Are you sure you want to buy now, I think you should wait and see if the prices come down more.”

It is hard to argue that prices will start going up and you should buy now! But I do believe there are some wonderful homes on the market now at very attractive prices and they are selling. If you are in a position where you want to buy a home and know you will be living in it for five or more years, you should be looking for your special home that you can start enjoying. Buy a house because you want to live in it not as a speculative investment.

By the way, my son’s elementary school is selling the Entertainment Book (Discounts Galore!) as a fundraiser. I sent out a few emails with links where you can buy one for the Sacramento area or your own area. They sell at Costco for $45 but you can buy it from our PTC for $40.00. Based on my review, it looks pretty easy to get your money back and more pretty quickly. Safeway has $20 off and there are lots of restaurant and store discounts too. Great deal if you keep it in your car! Check it out here.

Time Will Tell

Sales are down, inventory is up, prices are falling and more households are able to afford an entry-level home. All of this is and a prediction is included in my Rocklin & Roseville Today column today, “Only Time Will Tell.” I have also posted it on my new page at jalone.com. Let me know what you think, send me an email; I enjoy reading your comments.

Home Inventories at 16-year high

According to a report by the National Association of Realtors, inventory of available homes across the nation rose to a 16-year high in July and now stands at 3.85 million. During the same month sales fell to a 5-year low. Inventories of single-family unsold homes represented a 9.2-month supply at the July sales pace, the highest since October 1991. By region, sales fell by 2.2% in the Midwest, were unchanged in the South, rose 1% in the Northeast and fell 1.8% in the West. To read the full story, see “Home inventories rise to 16-year high” at Market Watch.

Is this an unprecedented period of time or just another cycle in the real estate market? Check out my latest article, “Perspectives in a Turbulent Market” which is part of my ongoing reality real estate series, MyForSaleSign.

Home Affordability

The conservative guideline used by the mortgage industry is that housing expense should not be more than 28 percent of income. This is called the housing-to-income ratio and compares the sum of monthly housing expenses to monthly gross income.

Monthly housing expense include payments such as principal, interest, property taxes and hazard insurance and is often referred to as PITI (principal, interest, taxes and insurance). It also can include private mortgage insurance, condo and homeowner fees.

If other factors are thought to compensate for higher risks, lenders may use a housing-to-income ratio above 28 percent. For example if a borrower makes a large down payment a lender might use higher ratios.

There is a good home affordability calculator at CNN that shows a conservative and aggressive loan amount based on 28 and 33 percent of gross income.

By the way, check out our Open Houses for this Sunday.

Looking Back

It has been two, maybe not so short, years since the hot Sacramento real estate freight train jumped the track of double digit growth and multiple “over asking” sales prices and “stated income” loans. Our market peaked in the summer of 2005 and the ride has been downhill ever since. Take a look at the peak and compare it to where we are today in my most recent real estate news article, “Looking Back.”

Today was very exciting around our house as school started for our son, Mikie. He is very proud to be a second grader with his very own desk and a new teacher who calls him Michael.

Getting a loan is not easy now!

Borrowers with good credit but without 5 or 10 percent to put down are likely to be shocked at the rate they're offered, if they're offered a mortgage at all. Lenders are eliminating certain products altogether as well as requiring higher credit scores and down payments, more extensive appraisals, larger savings accounts, and additional income verification.

"We thought the dust was going to settle, but instead, it just blew up," says Mitchell Reiner, president of Mortgage Associates, a Los Angeles-based lender that does business in 48 states. "Everyone is being affected."

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Jonathan Karp (08/14/2007)

More on Lending: There are many borrowers struggling with their current loans and since most of these loans were sold in the secondary market the lender no longer has control or workout options. Now they are in a credit market where they can’t qualify for a refinance. In yesterday’s SacBee article about the subprime loan crisis there was a wonderful quote from a lender who said, “"Loans are like cooking chicken," Everybody knows how, but there's a few of us like the colonel who have secret recipes." I am fortunate to be working with a lender who has a few recipes herself so if you are looking for a loan or need to refinance, let me know and I will be glad to put you in contact with her.

Getting Away

I love helping my clients buy and sell homes. This summer I have heard myself, on more than one occasion saying, “It shouldn’t be this hard.” Part of why I have been saying this is the changing market place. Not only in real estate with the move from a seller’s to buyer’s market being so dramatic but also the significant changes in the home mortgage industry and the current subprime loan crisis.

Traditionally, the last two weeks in August are slow in my business as families get ready for the new school year and squeeze in a last minute vacation. I thought this was a perfect time to get away myself for a few days to clear my mind. What better place to leave “real estate” behind than one of the natural wonders of the world, Yosemite National Park.

Being born and raised in Alaska where we have such spectacular scenery still didn’t prepare me for my first visit to Yosemite. Wow, the towering granite walls, El Capitan, Half Dome and hundreds of other sites were breathtaking and I loved every minute. Well, except the time I peered over the railing at Glacier Point and looked straight down over 4,000 feet to the valley floor below. I am not into thrill rides!

Yosemite was a great place to refresh your mind but not so good if you are looking for a nice meal. Too many mediocre buffets and service from staff who have become bored with tourists is my complaint but we did get a book on hiking in the park and intend to go back many more times.

Arriving home and reading the SacBee this morning brought me back to reality and real estate a bit abruptly. See my latest article and Rocklin & Roseville Today column, “Sacramento real estate: Different this summer?”

MyForSaleSign

If you have been following my reality real estate series, MyForSaleSign, take a look at the latest article, “New Times, Loans and Lenders.” The transaction we have been tracking, Randi and Tony selling their condo and buying a new home is moving into the final few episodes and they are now working on securing their financing during a difficult time in the mortgage loan industry.

Have we set a new record?

It seems to have happened sooner than I anticipated! I thought we would see two more weeks of growing inventory or available homes and condos on the market before the record numbers started their seasonal decline. According to HousingTracker, as of the week ending August 6th the number of homes on the market declined from the previous week. From the July 30 record high of 18,454 homes on the market we saw a decline of 162 to 18,292. Compared to a year ago at this time, current inventory is 2.7 percent higher. As you can see from the attached chart, the build-up last year was more rapid and the decline happened almost as quickly. This year, although the market exceeded the maximum number of homes on the market in August 2005, the build-up was a bit more gradual. It will be interesting to see if we plateau for a few weeks before starting to see the number of homes on the market decline.

During the past week, according to HousingTracker, we saw a slight decline in the median asking price for available homes, from $385,000 to $384,900. Over the past month the median asking price has declined 1.3 percent and over the past year it has dropped 10.5 percent.

So far this summer our Jalone Real Estate Group has remained very busy but I anticipate a few weeks of quiet as families get ready to start a new school year. Our son, Mikie, started soccer practice yesterday and I can tell you the soccer equipment store we go to, Extreme Soccer, was full of parents getting their kids ready for the new season. I doubt many of them were thinking about buying or selling real estate! Our schools start two weeks from today. It will be after Labor Day before we should start seeing some new activity. Then, believe it or not, it is the rush into the holiday season.

Hey, I still want a few lazy days of summer!

A Jewel in a Gloomy Market

I just finished some web surfing of a few blogs and other real estate related sites I read. I can’t find much out there that indicates the Sacramento real estate market is anything other than gloomy. Sales continue to be in the dumps. Sales are way down. In June of this year we had just over half of the sales we had in June 2006 and July will not be any better. Inventory of available homes continues to grow in almost every area around Sacramento and we are already at record highs.

There is little doubt we are in a “buyer’s market.” The best homes go first and anything left over that is less than perfect is expected to go for a big discount. Sellers who do not want to price aggressively (price below the last sale) can expect to be on the market for long time.

It is a difficult time for homeowners who have to sell. My advice continues to be, do everything you can to make your home shine and price it aggressively. These are the homes that get sold while others linger.

Happier news: I held a successful Open House yesterday at my Tanus Circle listing in Rocklin. This house does shine and is in a great neighborhood. We had some interested buyers through at I think at least one of them may be back this week for a second look.

Two Years of Change

It just dawned on me that just about this time two years ago, everything in the real estate market started to change from how it had been for five years before that. Not all of it has been easy and a good deal of people have been hurt, more are facing foreclosure but maybe, just maybe, where the market is today is leading towards building a better foundation for the future of the industry. Take a look at my latest column, “Two Years of Change” at Rocklin & Roseville Today, or on my website and see if you agree.

We just published and mailed the latest “Julie’s Newsletter” and it is one of my favorites. There are no obligations when you sign-up and the Newsletter is free so find out why they call a poker hand with a pair of aces and eights “Dead Man’s Hand.” The answer and more is in my August Newsletter along with a great offer from Liquid Landscape Services

New Record Every Day

Inventory of homes available for sale in the greater Sacramento area continues to grow. Looks like we will end July with over 18,400 homes on the market which is 3.5 percent more than a month ago and a whopping 44 percent increase from where we were six months ago. During the same time the median asking price has dropped 2.5 percent in the past month and 3.8 percent in the past six months to $385,000. It wasn’t that long ago that it was holding steady at the $400,000 level. For a detailed look at inventory here in Sacramento, check out HousingTracker.

I’d say we will top out and begin a gradual decline in available homes before we hit the 19,000 level and maybe the median asking price will slip to $383,000. By the end of August we will see declining inventory and maybe even some firming of asking prices.

Speaking of inventory of available homes, I added a new listing yesterday. I am excited about it because this home shows like a page out of the Pottery Barn catalog. It is a beautiful home located in the Sierra Valley Oaks subdivision off of Sierra College Blvd. in Rocklin. The home, on Tanus Circle, is a 4 bedroom, 3 bath beauty in a great neighborhood with wonderful schools.

Congratulations to Michael and Kelly who took their State of California Real Estate License test on Saturday and both passed with flying colors.

Looking for a hideaway?

Check out the new listing our team just added in Colfax. This is the perfect hideaway, a remodeled 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,400 square foot home on a beautiful 3.6 acre site. Great little house nestled among the big shade trees and only a couple of miles off of Highway 80. Only a few minutes up the road from Auburn and you leave the city behind!

This week continues to be busy, with a combination of sellers and buyers so although the overall market seems to be in the lazy days of summer we have been busy. I anticipate we still have a few more weeks of this pace then I anticipate an increase in overall activity as we start to get close to school starting. After that happens we should see some gradual decline in inventory and maybe some firming of prices as we move into the late part of autumn.

Willard Way

Our summer days seem to be passing by a bit faster than I wanted and there have not been many, if any, “lazy days” yet. The real estate activity reports for June were negative, with most parts of the Sacramento area market showing fewer sales than last year, growing inventory and continued downward pressure on asking prices.

I have a great listing in Rocklin on Willard Way that seems to stereotypically fit into what the June real estate reports are showing. It is a well maintained older home and is priced aggressively for the square footage of living space but doesn’t stand out in the crowd when it comes to showings and location. This home has a lot to offer but is not getting the showings or interest we want. Maybe it is the buyers who are enjoying those fabled “lazy days of summer?”

With so few showings, to get some honest feedback, I have the home on the Lyon office tour this week and that will give us a better feel for how others feel the house shows and the price it is being offered at.

Short Sale Listing

I added a new listing this week and it is a great home with a short sale possibility. This home was purchased a few years ago at the top of the market, the owners then added a number of wonderful upgrades and improvements but now that they have moved from the area are, like many owners who bought in 2005, owe more on the house than the current market can support.

The home is a single story with over 3,200 square feet of living space. In addition to the 4 bedrooms and 3 baths, this home has a home office and a bonus room which would be perfect for a home theatre. There is a covered patio, professionally landscaped private backyard and a pool with solar heat. If you are in the area, come by and take a look at Miravista Drive in Rocklin.

If you want to learn more about short sales and how they work, check out my recent article on the subject, “Short Sales: Road to Riches?”

We sold our house in just one week.

For every home you hear about that sold after just a few days on the market there are hundreds that wait months for an offer. Keeping your home ready and waiting to sell is demanding and often eliminates any patience a seller had when they started the process. Check out what is happening in my reality real estate series, MyForSaleSign and my latest article, “Demands High – Patience Low.” Don’t forget the MyForSaleSign daily blog where we announced today that one of the properties we are following has an offer.

Summer Days

What a great summer so far, nice hot days and although we have been busy there is a casual feel to each day that you don’t seem to get any other time of year. At our house we have gone from watching the America’s Cup yachting races to the Tour de France. It makes you want to rent a bike and tour around Europe….well, maybe another summer for that.

There was a surprise with the build up in inventory of homes for sale. Last week I said we had most likely surpassed the record high of last August when I looked at the HousingTracker report of July 2nd. I just took a look to see the July 9th report and we actually saw a decline of 89 homes for sale to 17,906. After you think about last week with a holiday on Wednesday, it is not surprising that there weren’t many new houses being listed. I expect we will see that change this week.

Getting Ready for the 4th!

Independence Day is a great holiday. Maybe because of the historical significance of this holiday but it one of those days were you seem to be able to clearly remember where you were and what you did on so many previous July 4^th’s. With my recent whirlwind trip to Alaska for my 20^th high school reunion we don’t have any plans yet but even if we stay home and spend a quiet day together it will be great.

We mailed our monthly newsletter yesterday; I think it is a good edition. I didn’t know that three presidents died on July 4^th and two of them on the same day. Do you know which two? If you are not a subscriber to Julie’s Newsletter, check out the online version and find out. There is also a great story about our most American food, where it came from and how it got it came to be called a “Hot Dog.”

Have a great July 4^th and be safe.

Why do Realtors have pictures on their cards?

This is a question all realtors get frequently asked and until now I have not had an answer that made me feel good. Check out my latest article, “Why do we have photos on our cards?” and find out what others are saying and why I have decided to keep my picture on my business card.

Discovery Kingdom

Over the past weekend we spent some time at Six Flags Discovery Kingdom in Vallejo. They have changed the park and the name from Marine World. It kind of reminds me of the park back in the days that it was Marine World Africa USA which I think is what they called it back in the days when it was in San Mateo.

The changes are very positive, with more exhibits, shows, food concessions and a better family feeling. I didn’t see any roving gangs of teenagers like the last time we were there and although still expensive there is a better selection of food and they are spread out more around the park. A minor disappointment was the water ski/boat show is no longer being done. We saw the dolphin show which was great, the killer whale show which was a bit lackluster but always fascinating to see a mammal that big. We had some young children in our group so we tended to stay in the kids areas. The new Thomas the Tank Engine exhibit was well done but designed for the youngest of children. Mikie who has long been an enthusiast but now past the target age was delighted to see Thomas pulling Annie and Clarabelle but the wait and length of the ride were disappointing.

All in all, we had a great day and had fun sharing the adventure with our friends and we will go back. By the way, you can now park at the Marriott across the street for a few dollars more than the Six Flags parking lot and avoid the long walk to your car. At the end of the day you will be very glad the car is close!

Welcome to Summer!

I know the weather the past week or so has been summer like but today is the first full day of summer and the longest day of the year. We will have more sunlight today than any other day of the year. We hardly notice it here in California but up in Alaska, where I grew up, it was always a great celebration with lots of parties and events to mark the occasion.

If you are following my reality real estate series, MyForSaleSign, I posted a new article today, Competition in Yuba City: How does our listing compare? Randi and Tony have been the best clients, keeping their great condo/townhouse in show condition week after week. We just lowered the price and I wanted to take a look, from a buyers perspective, at the other homes that compare our listing.

Annoyed

I enjoy helping people with real estate and I mean it when I say some of the services I provide are free and with no obligation. After this a recent experience I want to add a modifier, free with no obligation as long as you are honest.

Last week I received an inquiry from my Free Market Valuation page. It was from person who has a home about 30 miles from me. He said he was just completing a major remodel and trying to decide a selling price. I did some initial work and sent him some information. This lead to a more extensive exchange and he made it clear he was not sure about selling but would be using the information I provided to help him make that decision. After another round of emails and a call we had a pretty good idea of the price range but with so much remodeling I volunteered to visit the property and take a tour. Again, he reminded me he had not made a final decision to sell.

We set a time and I drove the 30 miles to see the house and meet my internet contact. When I arrived I was greeted by another Realtor’s sign planted in the front yard and a lock box on the door. Turns out my contact is a “fix and flip” guy and has an investor who is an agent. All he wants for me is to confirm the selling price the other agent set. For those of you who are thinking, why didn’t she check MLS, I did and, although there is a sign, it is not currently listed with MLS.

Be honest with me if you want my help.

A look at Placer County and New Listing

Looking a bit closer at the recent SacBee story, “Home sales seek bottom” we see that Placer County real estate may be looking harder for the bottom than some of the other local areas that make up the greater Sacramento real estate market. The median sales price for existing homes sold in May dropped $10,750 from April to $437,750. This is off 9.6 percent from a year ago. This is the largest one year price decline in the four major counties, Placer, Sacramento, El Dorado and Yolo. The good news in Placer County is sales volume. Including condos there were 512 closed escrows in May. This is up sharply from 378 in April and is on par with May 2006 when there was 516 closed escrows.

Hopefully we will continue to see buyers out looking, especially in Rocklin where I have a new listing. Check out this great 4 bedroom, 3 bath home off of 3^rd Street on Willard Way. It is a great home, with loads of extras and ready for a new family. With almost 1,900 square feet of living area you won’t find anything this nice priced below $200 per square foot.

Not a great May

The Sacramento Bee had their monthly synopsis of the local real estate market in the business section this morning. Jim Wasserman’s article, “Home sales seek bottom” was not one of his most succinct efforts. I had to go back a read it a couple of time to make much sense. I think he was trying to cover too much in too large an area.

Overall the May results we generally not very positive unless you live in Yolo County where the median price was up 2.1 percent from last year. In the other seven counties reported on, including Sacramento and Placer the median prices continued their year over year decline. The most positive news for May that sales of existing homes was up, as expected, from April in all except El Dorado County.

One of the more brilliant quotes in the article included, Anthony Graham, from my own brokerage, Lyon Real Estate, who said, “I think we’re really starting to see a little more hesitance on the part of the seller to put their home on the market.” Really, Anthony, do you think so?

Find me a short sale

As the Sacramento real estate market is experiencing increased foreclosure activity I am getting more questions about short sales and at least an email a week asking me to help locate them. It seems that almost everyone has heard a story where someone bought a house for 50 percent of its value by taking advantage of a short sale. What is a short sale and are they something we should all be looking for? Check out my latest article, “Short Sales: Road to Riches?” on my real estate news page at jalone.com or in my weekly column at Rocklin & Roseville Today.

What are other agents saying?

I thought it would be interesting to check on a few other local agents as see what they are saying about our local Sacramento real estate market. Here is what they are saying:

• In the short term expect to see a level of stabilization within the overall real estate market in California for the next three/four months. Ed Fitch
• With summer, optomisum(sic), growth and renewal are in the air. Buyers are out looking and buying all the great properties that are on the market right now. Tammy Gallentine
• Know this, things will get better. Land is scarce, the prices of raw commodities are high, permits are difficult to come by, and environmental hurdles will continue to restrict building. Your home will be an excellent investment over the long term. Hang in there! Jimmy Castro
• It is still an awesome market for buyers and homes are still selling if priced right! What an awesome summer it is going to be. Randy Hawley
• Real Estate market is good in Sacramento area. As looking at the increasing inventory of houses for sale and the average time a house stays on the market before selling, it seems like the housing market is buyer's market. Jack Dhaliwal
• The month of May saw the real estate market continue to mprove(sic). Michelle Dinh and Julie Dinh Cooper

Okay, real estate agents are not the best spellers and tend to be optimistic when writing advertisements. I found all of the above quotes at Realty Times.

By the way, looking for a new home or a place to have some horses, check out our Current Listings.

All Summer Long!

Been kind of an up and down week around here. Busy with some client issues, in particular trying to recover a deposit, setting up an escrow and doing some general research for an investor who is interested in buying in our area.

Over the past week I have been contacted by two investors who feel like now is the time to buy in our market. Neither on lives here, both are in other parts of California and have said the believe now is the time to look at Sacramento real estate. During the past month, a home in my neighborhood was sold and now rented by an investor so maybe all of this is a sign. Or at least an indication that there are buyers out there who believe the Sacramento real estate market has stabilized.

I checked and see that available inventory is continuing to creep up with over 17,000 home on the market in the greater Sacramento area. As more houses come on the market there is downward pressure on pricing and according to the latest report at HousingTracker, the median asking price slipped a bit from where it has been over the past several weeks.

On a happy note, today is the last day of school for Mikie and his 1^st grade classmates here in the Roseville/Rocklin area. The last few weeks have been busy for all of us as school was wrapping up so I know it is more than just Mikie looking forward to a summer break! Do you remember how good it felt on the last day of class and knowing you had an entire summer to play?

Dump to Doll House

Check out the latest the first of three articles on our experience in turning a dump into a doll house at my reality real estate page, MyForSaleSign or on my weekly column at Roseville & Rocklin Today.

Still more to do

Another week is slipping by and although I feel like I was busy, in the end I can’t say I accomplished as much as I had hoped. For one I didn’t get a new column posted over at Rocklin & Roseville Today and I wanted to write another piece for MyForSaleSign. What we did accomplish is getting the June Newsletter published, still in the final printing so if you are not on my mailing list and would like to be, let me know by email or filling out this short form.

During the week we have added another 350+ homes to the available inventory here in the Sacramento real estate market. As I mentioned earlier in the week, there does not seem to be any reason we will not exceed the record high of homes on the market later this summer. I continue to be surprised that asking prices continue to resist the kind of drops we saw last year as inventory was building. Right now, according to HousingTracker we have 16,967 homes on the market with a stable median asking price of $399,000. I have a great listing out in Natomas and we just lowered the price from $511,350 to $499,000 in hopes of increasing showing activity. It is a great house on Beretania Way and if you or anyone you know is looking for a nice home, I would be happy to arrange a showing.

Speaking of showings, if you are out and about in the Yuba City area tomorrow, stop by and say hello. I will be holding Randi’s condo/townhome open from 1 to 4 PM.

Have a great Friday and weekend

Catching up

After the wonderful Memorial Day weekend we have been working hard here at the Jalone Real Estate Group to get back up to speed. Traci Butler has a couple of very nice transactions in process, Megan Warn is working on an important marketing campaign focused on my Mikie’s school and yesterday our Realtor –in-Training, Kelly Baker passed her Real Estate Principals exam with flying colors. I am working with several clients including my Feng Shui friends. We have Jody Mahoney busy writing up her bio for the Meet the Team and individual group member pages Michael is building.

I hope you all had a nice weekend and getting back in to the swing of things as we head into June and the last few weeks of spring. By the way, we are working on our June Newsletter and if you are not on our mailing list, we would love to send you a copy. There is no obligation and all you have to do is sign up here.